Both theories are outdated and poorly explained reality. Over the past half-century science overcame mechanism and drew attention to the non-equilibrium state of instability, the processes of breaking the stable order (transition from order to chaos and the birth of a new order). To understand such periods in the life of society thought the old tools do not work perfectly. During these periods, there is a lot of unstable equilibrium - a crossroads, "splitting paths" (bifurcation point). At this point they decide not to objective laws, and the small, but just perfect exposure. In one or another way of developments, from which then did not collapse, a person can push a tiny insignificant effort. metaphor "butterfly effect" even entered into a science. Butterfly, waving his wing at the right time in the right place, can cause a hurricane.